The US-Canada tariff war from March 2025 has created unprecedented challenges for Canadian small businesses particularly in the e-commerce sector. Understanding the effects and creating strong plans will help you to safeguard your company as 25% tariffs already affect around $60 billion worth of American goods and possible escalation looms on April 2, 2025.
How the Tariff War Is Impacting Canadian E-commerce Businesses
Direct Cost Increases
Canada’s retaliatory tariffs mean that if your e-commerce company buys goods or components from the US, you are probably going to see significant price hikes. The federal government has imposed 25% tariffs on approximately $60 billion worth of American goods in response to Trump’s initial tariffs and steel/aluminum tariffs. These counter-measures target a wide range of products including:
- Electronics and computers
- Sports equipment
- Appliances
- Apparel and footwear
- Tools and various consumer goods
For businesses selling these products, the tariffs create an immediate 25% price increase on inventory costs, forcing difficult decisions between absorbing these costs (reducing margins) or passing them to consumers (potentially losing sales). As CBC reports, many small businesses are caught in this challenging position with no good options.
Supply Chain Disruptions
The state of affairs now poses major supply chain difficulties:
- Delayed shipments as businesses navigate new tariff regulations
- Inventory management difficulties due to uncertain supply and pricing
- Limited ability to find domestic alternatives for certain products
According to the CBC, some specialized equipment simply isn’t manufactured in Canada, as in the case of Cluck Clucks restaurant chain, leaving businesses with no choice but to pay the higher tariffs or halt expansion plans entirely.
Consumer Purchasing Power
The overall economic impact of the tariff war is likely to reduce consumer purchasing power, affecting e-commerce sales:
- Higher prices across various product categories
- Reduced discretionary spending as consumers face inflation in essential goods
- Potential economic slowdown affecting overall consumer confidence
Economists warn that “consumers [will] pay higher prices for cars and parts imported from the United States and for food purchases that are hard to replace with Canadian or overseas products at equivalent cost”.
Cross-Border E-Commerce Challenges
For Canadian e-commerce businesses that sell to US customers, additional complications include:
- US tariffs making Canadian products more expensive and less competitive in the American market
- Declining US demand for Canadian goods as prices increase
- Shipping and customs delays at the border due to new tariff processing
As one business owner noted in a CNBC report: “Our customers are eager to purchase… Now, [orders remain] idle on the dock.”
Financial Strain
The combined effects create significant financial pressure:
- Reduced profit margins in an already competitive sector
- Cash flow challenges as costs increase but prices can’t always be raised proportionally
- Potential liquidity issues, especially for businesses operating with thin margins
Florence Jean-Jacobs, principal economist at Desjardins Group, explains: “They will have to choose between reducing their profits or increasing their selling prices, which will weaken their power to retain and attract customers”.
Government Support Programs Available
The Canadian government has introduced several support programs that e-commerce businesses might access:
- $5 billion Trade Impact Program through Export Development Canada to help exporters reach new markets
- $500 million in favorable loans through the Business Development Bank of Canada for businesses directly impacted by tariffs
- A remission process for exceptional relief from counter-tariffs
These programs may provide some relief, but businesses will need to navigate application processes during an already challenging period. The full impact remains uncertain, especially with the threat of additional tariffs potentially coming on April 2, 2025, which could further escalate the situation for Canadian e-commerce businesses.
Strategies to Weather the Tariff Storm
Diversify Supply Chains and Markets
Reduce US Dependency
Small online retailers should actively seek alternative suppliers outside the US to minimize exposure to the 25% counter-tariffs that began on March 4, 2025, with more coming on April 2. This includes exploring suppliers from Europe, Asia, and Latin America to replace American sources for affected products.
Expand Your Customer Base
If you’re heavily dependent on US customers, prioritize growing your Canadian customer base and exploring international markets protected by favorable trade agreements. The CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) and CETA (Canada-EU trade agreement) offer access to markets without the tariff complications currently affecting US trade.
Leverage Government Support Programs
Several government initiatives have been launched specifically to help businesses affected by the tariff situation:
- The Trade Impact Program through Export Development Canada, providing $5 billion to help exporters reach new markets
- $500 million in favorably priced loans through the Business Development Bank of Canada for businesses directly impacted by tariffs
- The Canada Small Business Financing Program to help obtain loans from financial institutions
- A remission process for exceptional relief from counter-tariffs
Operational Strategies
Consider Partial US Operations
Some Canadian businesses are establishing assembly or partial manufacturing operations in the US to avoid tariffs. While this requires investment, it can be more economical than absorbing the 25% tariff costs in the long run.
Move Up the Value Chain
Rather than exporting raw materials or basic products, focus on producing higher-value finished goods. The transportation costs can be more easily absorbed within the profit margins of these premium products.
Implement Tariff Engineering
Work with tax and trade experts to potentially reclassify products to categories with lower or no tariffs.
Digital Transformation
Strengthen Your Online Presence
Investing in website optimization, SEO, and digital marketing can help reach new customers and diversify revenue streams beyond affected markets. According to BDC, this is particularly important as businesses need to find new customers to replace potentially lost US sales.
Explore E-commerce Automation
Implementing automation tools can help reduce operational costs to offset some of the increased expenses from tariffs. This might be the silver lining – forcing efficiency improvements that will benefit your business long after the tariff situation resolves.
Industry Collaboration
Join chambers of commerce or trade associations to access collective resources, share strategies with other affected businesses, and have a stronger voice in policy discussions. The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) is actively advocating for expanded support for SMBs affected by the tariffs.
Economic Outlook for 2025-2026
Despite the tariff challenges, there are some positive indicators for the Canadian economy:
- Projected growth of around 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, outpacing potential output growth
- E-commerce sector expected to continue strong growth, with revenue projected to exceed $74 billion CAD in 2025, up from $65.5 billion CAD in 2024
- Nearly 78% of Canadians projected to shop online by 2025, representing almost 30 million people embracing digital shopping
- Inflation expected to remain close to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, with projections of 2.3% for 2025 and 2.1% for 2026
However, these projections don’t fully incorporate the potential impacts of wide-ranging US tariffs, which could significantly affect growth and inflation if expanded. The current tariff situation is creating uncertainty that may impact business investment and trade relationships.
Taking Action
While new tariffs could arrive on April 2, 2025, the situation is still uncertain, thus Canadian e-commerce SMEs should give flexibility and diversification first priority and use government support programs to help them through this difficult moment.
The comprehensive list of products from the United States subject to 25% tariffs effective March 13, 2025 should be carefully reviewed by all e-commerce businesses to understand specific impacts on your supply chain and product offerings.
For businesses looking to navigate these complex waters, the Business Development Bank of Canada has created a special support page with additional resources tailored to businesses affected by the current tariff situation.